9/04/03 - 52W HIGH: New 52-Wk High for AAI @ $15.370 up2.19%

[haze]

Ridgeland, MS, SEP 04, 2003 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- This is the 2nd 52 WEEK HIGH alert for AAI in the past 7 calendar days.

The share price for AirTran Holdings Inc (NYSE: AAI) reached a new 52-week high today, trading at $15.370, up $0.330 (2.19%) from its previous close of $15.040.

The Company's previous 52-week high of $15.300 was set yesterday on September 03, 2003.

One year ago, the Company's shares closed at $3.400. The price has climbed more than 352 percent since then.

At the time of this alert, the stock had traded 111,600 shares via 94 trades, 90.30% below it's 20day average of 1,150,555 shares.

This new 52-week high currently puts the stock:

14.79% above its 20day Moving Average of $13.389

25.41% above its 50day Moving Average of $12.256

53.89% above its 100day Moving Average of $9.988

The Company last released news on September 03, 2003 (yesterday):

"AirTran Airways Reports Record August Traffic"



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[haze]

What was the quote? I think it went something like this "Keep fighting those windmills, Haze!" I think we all know who's fighting the windmills here

[mduell]

AAI insider trading is not so positive...
In the month of August, Robert Priddy (Director) sold $13m worth of stock, leaving him with none.
Lewis Jordan (Director) sold $7.5m in the last year, including $2.5m in August alone, leaving himself with ~$40k.
Do the Directors really have this little faith in the future of their company?

[haze]

...no...

[mduell]

No?

[haze]

You posed a question requiring an oppinionated response, and I simply gave you mine. I see it more as profit taking amid the string of recent 52-week highs AirTran has strung together, especially in light of the fact that many of these directors lost 10s of millions after the ValuJet crash. The stock has been down for so many years that these 52-week highs are pretty enticing for some to cash in on. I've even thought about dumping my shares since they're up over 300%, but I don't have the huge losses to cover like some of those directors so I'm being greedy and hanging in there for a little more. If you're way down in blackjack, and you've been at the table for days, you're grateful if you manage to battle back to even. It's nothing short of miraculous if you can manage a profit after being so far down for so long, and the temptation to cash in your chips while you're ahead can be overwhelming. Although you may be able to rake in bundles on the new hot streak, the smart move is to cash in. They're probably pretty confident that AirTran will continue the hot streak, but the smart play for those who lost millions was to go ahead and cash in. If I decide to do the same, I'll probably end up reinvesting new funds right back into AAI at the current price levels with the belief that the stock will still return a profit of somewhere around 150% over the next 10 years with the recovered economy. I imagine they probably feel the same way, and I predict we'll eventually see more insider buying as this scenario pans out. That's why my answer to your question is "no", because I'm contemplating the very same thing and know others who have acted and thought similarly about AAI stock recently...

[mduell]

If you were the director of a company that you thought was going to do well, you'd sell all your stock? How insane does that sound? It sounds to me like they're happy to get their money out, possibly anticipating the stock to drop again (like after VJ592)...

[haze]

I'm thinking about selling all my AAI stock, but I also think the company is going to do well. Am I insane? Maybe, but money in the bank is a lot better than enthusiastic speculation. Especially for those who suffered 10s of millions of dollars in losses after the ValuJet crash. If I were to cash in on AAI right now, I'd probably put those profits into an aggressive growth mutual fund for safer keeping. But then I'd re-invest any new funds I put into the market right back into AAI at current price levels because I think the stock is going to profit 150-200% over the next 10 years with the recovered economy. That's why I said I think we'll see more insider buying from AAI directors in the future, after this round of "recovery selling" at these 52-week highs. The savvy investor knows that insider selling is not the only and/or most accurate indicator of future performance, especially with the circumstances surrounding this airline. That's basically what I tried to convey in my previous post, but apparently you didn't read it very closely. If on the other hand you did, then obviously your mind is already made up and no amount of logical debate will convince you otherwise, so I won't waste any more time on it. The headline for this topic speaks for itself, as do the other two I posted recently about record traffic and rosey forcasts for AirTran's market share. Did you actually want an answer to your question, or were you just stating your thoughts although you ended the sentence with a question mark?

[haze]

...the header for this thread is already old news, another 52-week high:

Corporate Snapshot
AIRTRAN HLDGS INC (NYSE:AAI)
Latest Quote


Last: 16.720
High: 16.850
Low: 16.120
Open: 16.180
Change: +0.68
Volume: 499,100


52 Wk High: 16.850
52 Wk Low: 2.340
%Change: 4.2%


Market Cap: 1,227M
Price/Sales: 1.5
EPS: $0.89
P/E Ratio: 18.7

[Nugget]

The stock price alone isn't particularly indicative of anything. Enron's stock was up over 50% during the first half of 2001 and by November they were on the brink of bankruptcy. While the market seeks to eliminate value differential between a company's intrinsic worth and it's capitalization, it's never a perfect process -- especially when so many aspects of a company's operation and management are not visible to the general public who are largely responsible for driving the price of the stock.

mduell's news is far more illuminating than the share price itself, indicating that even the directors of AirTran do not feel that the stock is worth what it's selling for. This goes beyond simply pessimisim about future growth -- if a person sells nearly all of their holdings in a company they are clearly of the opinion that the company isn't worth what the stock costs. Who would know better than a director of AirTran?

There's simply no way to interpret directors selling 100% or nearly 100% of their stake in a corporation as a positive indicator.

[haze]

No, stock price ALONE isn't particulary indicative of anything just as insider selling alone isn't either. You can't have it both ways. But stock price, when paired with low P/E ratios and robust earnings and growing market share, are particularly indicative of a positive outlook. I never said or implied that a director selling 100% of their shares is any sort of "positive indicator." That's just silly. I only said it's not as negative as mduell was making it out to be and that I predicted a trend toward insider buying in the future after this round of "52-week high" profit taking. Several directors have bought shares over the past six months as well. Is AAI stock overvalued? With a P/E ratio of 18 I'd say no. Two seperate analysts set the short-term price target at $18/share based on the latest earnings and developing trends in market share...

[Nugget]

What "both ways" am I trying to have it?

[haze]

You were arguing that I couldn't site one single aspect of the company (52-week high) as any sort of positive indicator, yet at the same time you were claiming that one single aspect of the company (insider selling) was the only indicator for the future of the company. I can't but you can? That's all I meant by "both ways." I agree that insider selling is usually a concern to be closely monitered. I just believe the extenuating circumstances of the AirTran story paired with all the other positive indicators (rapid expansion of market share, rapid expansion of the flight network, rapid modernization of the fleet, soaring profits, low P/E, a recent string of 52-week highs, the addition of a 4th mini-hub in Dallas, record traffic month over month, and so on) lessen the impact and significance of the recent insider selling. We shall see

[Nugget]

Where did I argue that? You seem to have some difficulty with reading comprehension. All I said was that the insider transactions were "more illuminating" than your mention of the stock price. And I still insist that they are.

The directors of a company are in a better position than the general public to determine the value of shares and accordingly it's wise to pay attention to the activities of the directors. This is, in fact, why such trades are required to be public record -- precisely because they are useful indicators of the health of a company.

[ithisk]

Soaring profits aren't a positive indicator if they're achieved by lowballing maintenance and saving money where it isn't safe to save.

There seems to be a significant amount of evidence suggesting that this is the case and the only claims to the contrary are the baseless claims of a few anonymous individuals posting to this forum.

[B717mech]

ithisk

You said there is a significant evidence to AirTran lowballing maintenance. Please show us. I believe these are baseless claims. Just like the baseless claims you say we are making (the anonymous individuals). I am a mechanic for Airtran. I have been here 8 1/2 years. I know our maintenance program and our mechanics and I can tell you with %90 certainty, that we do not and will not let an airplane fly that we know is unairworthy. I don't believe our crews will do that either. Yes not all mechanics here or at any other airline are %100 trustworthy, but at least %90 are.

[dbaker]

We do not need to have the maintenance discussin again, it is a dead and beaten horse that is fully documented on the ITYT Airtran site. Everyone is bored with the conversation.

I'm not even going to respond to the implications of your 90% comments; it's clear that you don't understand how ridiculous your made-up statistics sound.

[B717mech]

Baker

I never claimed the percent to be exact. As I said that is what I think.

[haze]

Nugget:
My reading comprehension is just fine. In fact my minor was English Literature, I've won a Peabody award in writing, and have written for several newspapers and magazines as far back as 1984. Comprehension problems? You fail to comprehend that I actually acknowledged the importance of insider selling, as any savvy investor should do. But by itself, that info is as useless as you claim my 52-week high info is. I listed actual market factors that I paired with the 52-week highs that I believe represent a positive forecast. You could only offer assumptions, opinions, and conjecture about what you imagine is going on inside the directors' minds. I've made myself perfectly clear and my posts speak for themselves, and we shall see who is right. I'll be sure and remind you when it's time for you to eat your crow

ithisk:
I challenge you to list the "significant amount of evidence" that you speak of. Sheesh, talk about baseless claims. Evidence to the contrary? How about all those Diamond Maintenance Awards the FAA has bestowed upon AirTran since 1997? It's the highest safety award handed down by the FAA. AirTran's maintenance and safety has been recognized and rewarded by the FAA for their high level of training and performance. Before 1996, ValuJet was definately a different story. I think you're a little confused, but that's exactly what dbaker is hoping for...

dbaker:
We'll have any "discussin" we please, this is an open forum. Or isn't it? If not, I want to hear you say it's not so everyone here knows where you stand. I guess you control what topics we do or don't discuss. I'm sorry, I had no idea I we were messing with the thought police. By the way, B717mech didn't bring up the maintenance discussion again, ithisk did. And while we're on the maintenance tangent, I'll restate that I'd definately believe these two guys who actually work on the airplanes over two or three "frequent fliers" who think they know everything. It really cracks me up that a couple of you think you know more about the inner-workings of an airline than two mechanics who actually keep those planes airborne day in and day out. Speaking of ridiculous, the ITYT AirTran site is the real joke. I can't speak for "everyone" as you apparently can, but personally the only thing I'm bored with is your condescention

[haze]

"We are very pleased with AirTran's overall near-perfect company-wide maintenance technician participation for AMT training. This means that 211 out of AirTran's 216 maintenance technicians were recognized by the FAA for their dedication and commitment to training, thus ensuring that FAA safety codes and regulations are strictly observed," said David Sexton, Instructor Technical Training.

Gee dbaker, looks like b717mech's statistics aren't so "made up" and "ridiculous" after all. In fact, 211 out of 216 technicians were praised by the FAA itself for "dedication and commitment." If my math is correct, that's 97.7% of their mechanics. Now now b717mech, apparently AirTran's mechanics are even better than you suspected